Entries in employment levels (5)

Friday
Feb032012

Enable me: prison leavers and Work Programme inclusion

Something notable is buried in the article "750,000 to join ranks of long-term unemployed in the next four years" (as reported in the Guardian).

"More than 100,000 prison leavers will now also be entered into the Work Programme for the first time..."

This is good news, albeit a bit old; though it seems no one paid attention when it was announced last August. The Conservative government (why bother calling it a coalition anymore, honestly) occassionally does things that make sense -- unfortunately those times are few and far between.

70% of those in prison, on average, reoffend. Those serving community sentences reoffend less than half the time. Recall that the first real trial of social impact bonds was in Peterborough Prison where a social enterprised bargained for an estimated return of forgone savings (or money that other would have been spent) to curb reoffending rates by implementing a successful scheme that did indeed curb reoffending rates.

It's about enablement -- according to Dr Martin Seligman, unhappy with his happiness agenda has reframed it as well-being. In Flourish, Seligman spends most of the book talking about self-awareness and emotional skills as the most important skills for success in 21st century work. This is what we have called digital literacy in our forth-coming book. Seligman tests his well-being teaching programme not on prisoners, but on another often economically marginalised post-term group: soldiers. To 'flourish' is about having the presence of mind and confidence in yourself to pull your own resources to adapt to whatever challenges life places in front of you.

There are a number of groups doing enablement work for the long-term unemployed (London Creative Labs and Particple to name a few). Their approach is different: it involves teaching what is largely self-awareness, to enable people back into work.

London Creative Labs board member David Pinto believes, though, that if we continue to conceptualise work as something that we 'put people back into' then we won't see employment rise. Pinto's big idea is that by teaching enablement, people can create their own work, work for their society doing what needs to be done.

But does government have a role? We at rethink work would say that government's role is to enable society to have the flexibility and the resources for that to happen.

There is something similar about the way social impact bonds work to the way that the Work Programme works: private sector contractors are paid upon results. But that won't make much difference if the economy isn't creating jobs, or rather if people aren't enabled to recognise and make their own opportunity. That's the danger.

There's easy criticism to be leveled at this view: how can you expect people to all be entrepreneurs or freelancers? We don't.

The extreme view is that as we all become freed, enlightened agents of the "creative economy", large businesses will cease to exist. We don't think this will happen, rather what we think is likely is that the economy will be able to support more entrepreneurial activities, social enterprises, and small business made up of coalitions of professionals who bring unique skills to their work. Those with the resources (Seligman's high levels of well-being) will be the most desirable candidates for jobs, will likely have the wherewithall (risk tolerance) to be entrepreneurs.

Sunday
Oct092011

IPPR says nef is wrong: growth & happiness aren't mutually exclusive

In this article on PublicFinance.co.uk, 3 economists say that the new economics foundation is wrong, that we can have 'prosperity with growth', or that is, better economic well being whilst bringing jobs growth and economic recovery, increasing output per capita.

It's worth a read, but the different groups of economists "Jackson and his ilk" and Nash and his ilk are operating on two completely different sets of assumptions-- what new economics (aside from the foundation) is a movement that rethinks economic theory by rewriting the assumptions upon which our economic models are based. Nash et al are arguing back on neo-liberal, capitalist economic theory. They are talking past each other.

One actually wonders whether Nash et al bothered to read Tim Jackson's book "Prosperity without Growth" but instead just decided to criticise the title.

We still recommend you read it. You can start below.

(and once you've done that, Click here to buy Tim Jackson's book for yourself or here and here for excerpts.)

Growing Greener

by Nash et al from PublicFinance.co.uk

Heading for his summer holiday, Ed Miliband was ­photographed carrying a pile of ten weighty books. Towards the top of the Labour leader’s list was ­Prosperity without growth by Tim Jackson, professor of sustainable development at Sussex University.

Jackson’s argument is essentially that a continually growing economy will destroy the planet since it is a myth that economic activity can be ‘decoupled’ from natural resource use, and in particular from carbon emissions. His book claims that the only way to lower greenhouse emissions enough to prevent dangerous ­climate change is to reduce economic growth to zero.


Jackson is not alone. Others – most famously Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett in
The Spirit Level – argue that a relentless focus on growth does little but make citizens unhappy as they join a race for status that can only end in disappointment, with someone else always further up the greasy pole.

These arguments have their merits but miss the wood for the trees. Growth in economic activity – more jobs and more output – can be consistent with environmental sustainability, happiness and greater equality. The problems that our society has faced in recent years – rising carbon emissions, increased dislocation and insecurity, rising inequality – have not been caused by growth per se. They are caused by the use of dirty and old technologies rather than modern, low-carbon alternatives; the lack of a carbon price to deter polluters; a failure to find ­salient policy solutions that raise wellbeing; and a failure to change the UK’s economic model so that the gains from growth are more evenly disbursed. Another world is possible, but it will almost certainly involve economic growth.


Just as classical economics has deified growth, so Jackson and his ilk are demonising it. Yet both camps risk simply paying it too much attention at the expense of the underlying factors that really matter. These are investment in clean technology, the creation of jobs and the narrowing of the inequality gap.


The critical question is not so much the level of ­economic activity but its type. More sustainable growth would be a lot better for people and planet than less or zero unsustainable growth. Debt-fuelled consumption by government or citizens, and carbon-intensive energy and transportation are increasingly understood as unsustainable forms of economic activity. But ­consumption paid for by income and activity powered by renewable forms of energy are far more sustainable.


Economic theory outlines that increased ­productivity, accumulation of human capital and technological change are all critical to increasing economic growth.

Click here to continue reading...


Thursday
Jun162011

ILO Unemployment Up, Recovery?

I'm not going to debate with you if the recovery ever started, so we'll start with the press release from The Work Foundation:

 

For immediate release: 15 June 2011

 

Private sector jobs growth strong but still little impact on underlying unemployment

 

Commenting on today’s labour market statistics, Ian Brinkley, centre director at The Work Foundation, said:

 

“The labour market continues to defy warnings that the economic recovery has come to a halt. Private sector job growth in the three months to April compared with the previous three months was strong and dominated by full-time employment. The fall in “headline” unemployment as defined by the ILO was much stronger than expected, but is driven by more young people going into higher and further education. The recovery is still having little impact on underlying unemployment and groups such as the young and the over 50s still face challenging times. Tougher times may well be ahead, but today’s figures are encouraging”

 

I know I'm back in school because there was no way I was getting a job just out of school with no experience.

Why is it still called a recovery if its jobless? 

Here's coverage of the statistics to which the Work Foundation is refering: including numbers such as the employment level in the UK stands at 70%. (We'll leave aside debating whether we can actually ever have full employment too, just for convenience) That's pretty low for a developed economy. With the tuition fee hikes, one of two things will happen: headline unemployment will fall as fewer people will deem university education a luxury and not enter into education which in the longrun hurts the growth of the UK economy OR people will remain relatively unphased by tuition fee hikes and go into higher education in which case we end up (in the not too distant future) facing a massive college debt default like the United States is now.

The more we read headlines like 'danger of falling back into recession' 'government cuts may trigger double-dip recession' 'private sector employment growth strong at under 1%' -- despite having studied economics-- this still feels like spin doctoring. Yes, a major part of economic sentiment (consumer confidence) is spin doctoring. But we've run out that strategy at this point. It's time to address the underlying assumptions upon which the economy is built: and it's not quality, it's quantity.

Round and round we go.

Happy weekend.

Friday
Jan212011

Jobless Recovery As Conceptual Creative Economy Transition?

Is growth in temporary jobs really an indicator of a weak jobs recovery? Or an indicator of a transitionary conceptual economy (Pink) picking up speed?

Very recently I wrote this post about how America’s ‘1 million jobs created in 2010’ headlines were meaningless unless qualified. According to the US Current Employment Statistics Survey, the US economy is adding part-time and contract labour faster than most other jobs.  The number of people working part-time for economic reasons as well as those who have become self-employed is up, but not by much in 2010 on 2009. I also cited reports (rather unscientific) that online job postings are up.

Traditionally, growth in part-time, temporary, and contract work has meant unstable and unfavourable economic conditions for workers. Why? Simply, part-time workers don’t tend to get benefits like health care or tutition re-imbursement. They are usually the first to be fired when things like tax conditions, social security (national insurance), and fixed-asset spending change.

I spend most of my year in the UK where the reduction in the unemployment rate has meant -- in effect-- a jobless jobs recovery. The national unemployment has fallen, according to the ONS (Office of National Statistics) due to growth in part-time and temporary/contract jobs.

From  the Guardian:
“The ONS reported that the number of employees and self-employed people who were working part-time because they could not find a full-time job increased by 26,000 in the three months to November, to 1.16 million. This is the highest figure since comparable records began in 1992.”

The latest quarterly data taken in aggregate shows that the number of people working part-time has begun to fall along with overall employment.

The UK government recently scrapped a jobs creator: the Future Jobs Fund which encouraged hiring in the social entrepreneurship sector, a major front in the expansion of the conceptual creative economy.

From Social Enterprise Live:
“Weighing into the debate Social Enterprise London (SEL) CEO Allison Ogden-Newton said SEL used the fund to create 500 positions in 32 London social enterprises with 65 per cent of those placements converted into continuing paid employment.”

I’m also reading for my PhD right now: Robinson The Element and Pink’s A Whole New Mind. Both authors discuss the movement towards a creative or conceptual economy (I’ll stick social enterprise under these classifications).

Where everything might be looking like a job for an axe, I still wonder whether future economists will read this as the mirepoix for the conceptual creative transition?

A worrying development though is recurring national dialogues in both the US and UK about the purpose of higher education.  The attitude is this: why go to university and pay all this money when you won’t get a job on the other end. In Robinson, Pink, and Florida education is the key to a conceptual transition. Education trends in the near future need to be watched.

What is clear is that right now the transition can go either way and national economies (n.b. not governments, necessarily) must be very careful to continue to encourage SMEs, bank lending, and education whilst rewarding non-paying economic participation.

 

Monday
Aug162010

Pre-Crisis Employment Recovery: how long?

I read an interesting statistic the other day about US employment levels: they aren't supposed to recover to precrisis levels until around 2015. 2015? That's half a decade.

How long will it take employment to recover in Britain to pre-crisis levels.  Let's assume (somewhat stupidly, but nevertheless this is how these things are normally assessed) that this recession will be like the recessions in the recent past: the 1980's and the 1990's.  The British economy never recovered pre-recessionary 1980's employment levels.  After the recession in 1991, it took around six years for the economy to recover employment levels. Check out this graph from the ONS (via BBC) and not in particular that UNemployment levels began higher in 1990 (yellow line) than in the 1980's (blue line). 

employment levels in the UK, recessions compared (ONS via BBC)I want to recall for a moment, something from your Macro Econ 101 course: unemployment is grossly under-reported, in general.  Why? Because it doesn't take into account those who are under-employment (systemically nor chronically) or those who have stopped searching for jobs.  And I think, as this experiment is not only about reducing work hours but using that extra time to become employed in a job you feel most suited to, it's worth pointing out that unemployment numbers do not take satisfactory employment into account either.

Overall unemployment dropped in the last quarter in the UK from 8 percent to 7.8 percent and as the FT reports the UK economy created the most jobs in 21 years, "The number of people employed in the UK surged by 184,000 to 29.02m in the second quarter, the biggest rise since 1989," and it continues (this is the interesting bit-->) "although about two-thirds of the increase came from part-time work."

So called "part-time work" hours are the kind of hours a 21 hour work week currently fits into.  So, woohoo! for more "part-time work" -- employers are reporting spare labour capacity like it's a bad thing (rethink, please!) but on the other hand this probably means that there are loads of people now under-employed at insufficient wages because we know that minimum wage (in both the US and the UK) hasn't really (double meaning alert) risen since the 1970's.

There's lots of pretty talk about how technological advances will allow the economy to recover more quickly than before.  But without proper worker retraining and proper alteration to wage levels, we think, this is doubtful. Unemployment for people over 50 has risen 52% (Guardian) in the last year, is now at the highest level in a decade. Though strangely, we seem to be trying to return to business as usual as the Telegraph has reported that by this fall City jobs will have recovered to pre-crisis levels. Well, bully for them.

 

For more on employment levels, the Guardian has a nice interactive graphic here about jobless claims in the UK since 1984.